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The Incremental Commitment Spiral Model: Phased View
Stage II:
Stage I: Incremental Definition Incremental Development,
Operations and Production
ICSM Anchor ECR VCR FCR DCR OCR1 ...
Points 1 DCR2
1
n 1 Operations
ICSM Life-Cycle elopment 2 1 2 ...
v and Production
aluation oundations De (O&P) 3
Phases Exploratio V F elopment
oundations v
F De
oundations
F
Activities
Concurrent risk- and Initial scoping Concept System life-cycle Increment 1 Increment 1
opportunity-driven definition architecture and Development Operations and
growth of system Investment ops concept Increment 2 Production
understanding and analysis Build-to Foundations Increment 2
definition increment plans rebaseline Development ...
and specifications Increment 3
NDI, outsource Foundations
partner selections rebaseline
Evaluation of evidence Feasibility ... ... ... ... ...
of feasibility to proceed Evidence
Stakeholder review High, but Acceptable
and commitment addressable
Too high, Risk? Risk? Risk? Risk? Risk?
unaddressable Negligible
Adjust scope, priorities, or discontinue
Exploration Valuation Foundations Development Operations
ECR = Commitment VCR = Commitment FCR = Commitment DCR = Commitment OCRn = Commitment
n Review Review
Review Review Review n n
Reprinted with permission from Human-System Integration in the System Development
Process, 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences, Courtesy of the National Academies
Press, Washington, D.C.
Feasibility Evidence Description Content
Evidence provided by the developer and validated by independent experts that, if
the system is built to the specified architecture, it will:
h Satisfy the requirements: capability, interface, level of service, and evolution
h Support the operational concept
h Be buildable within the budgets and schedules in the plan
h Generate a viable return on investment
h Generate satisfactory outcomes for all of the success-critical stakeholders
h Resolve all major risks by treating shortfalls in evidence as risks and
covering them by risk management plans
h Serve as a basis for stakeholders’ commitment to proceed
Principles Trump Diagrams
The Four ICSM Principles
1. Stakeholder value-based guidance.
2. Incremental commitment and accountability.
3. Concurrent multi-discipline engineering
4. Evidence and risk-based decisions.
Risk Meta-Principle of Balance: Balancing the risk of doing too little and the risk
of doing too much will generally find a middle course sweet spot that is about the
best you can do.
Theory W (Win-Win) Success Theorem: A system will succeed if and only if it
makes winners of its success-critical stakeholders.
System Success Realization Theorem: Making winners of your success-critical
stakeholders requires:
1. Identifying all of the success-critical stakeholders.
2. Understanding how each stakeholder wants to win.
3. Having the success-critical stakeholders negotiate among themselves a win-
win set of product and process plans.
4. Controlling progress toward the negotiated win-win realization, including
adapting it to change.
The Incremental Commitment Spiral Model
Cumulative Level of Understanding, Product and Process
Detail (Risk-Driven)
S
N
O 4
I
T
A Concurrent
D
N
U
O
F Engineering of
T
N 3 S
N
O
I
E T 3
A
M D Products and
N
P U
O
O F
L
T Processes
E N 2
V E S
N
E O
M I
T 2
A
D P D
N
2 O U
N L O
F
O E
I V T1
T E N
A D E NS
R M TIO
E N 1 P A
P O D
O L N
O TI E U
RISK-BASED A V FO ON
R E TI
D A
E U
STAKEHOLDER L
P A
V
O
COMMITMENT ORA
L T
P I
O
X
N
REVIEW E
POINTS:
654321
Opportunities to
proceed, merge
phases,
backtrack or
terminate
1Exploration Commitment Review
Risk-Based Decisions 2 Valuation Commitment Review
3 Foundations Commitment Review
Acceptable 4 Development Commitment Review
Negligible Risk Too High, Operations and Development
Unaddressable Evidence-Based Review Content 5 1 2
- A first-class deliverable Commitment Review
High, But - Independent expert review Operations and Development
Addressable 6 2 3
- Shortfalls are uncertainties and risks Commitment Review
Reprinted with permission from Human-System Integration in the System Development
Process, 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences, Courtesy of the National Academies
Press, Washington, D.C.
Principles Trump Diagrams
Stage II:
Stage I: Incremental Definition Incremental Development,
Operations and Production
OCR
ICSM Anchor ECR VCR FCR DCR 1 ...
1 DCR
Points 2
1
n 1 Operations
ICSM Life-Cycle elopment 2 1 2 ...
v and Production
aluation oundations De (O&P) 3
Phases Exploratio V F elopment
oundations v
F De
oundations
F
Activities
Concurrent risk- and Initial scoping Concept System life-cycle Increment 1 Increment 1
opportunity-driven definition architecture and Development Operations and
growth of system Investment ops concept Increment 2 Production
understanding and analysis Build-to Foundations Increment 2
definition increment plans rebaseline Development ...
and specifications Increment 3
NDI, outsource Foundations
partner selections rebaseline
Evaluation of evidence Feasibility ... ... ... ... ...
of feasibility to proceed Evidence
Stakeholder review High, but Acceptable
and commitment addressable
Too high, Risk? Risk? Risk? Risk? Risk?
unaddressable Negligible
Adjust scope, priorities, or discontinue
Exploration Valuation Foundations Development Operations
ECR = Commitment VCR = Commitment FCR = Commitment DCR = Commitment OCRn = Commitment
n Review Review
Review Review Review n n
Reprinted with permission from Human-System Integration in the System Development
Process, 2007 by the National Academy of Sciences, Courtesy of the National Academies
Press, Washington, D.C.
Feasibility Evidence Description Content
Evidence provided by the developer and validated by independent experts that, if
the system is built to the specified architecture, it will:
h Satisfy the requirements: capability, interface, level of service, and evolution
h Support the operational concept
h Be buildable within the budgets and schedules in the plan
h Generate a viable return on investment
h Generate satisfactory outcomes for all of the success-critical stakeholders
h Resolve all major risks by treating shortfalls in evidence as risks and
covering them by risk management plans
h Serve as a basis for stakeholders’ commitment to proceed
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